August 24, 2026
MRVL Reports Thursday. The Google Deal Is the Sideshow.
Optical interconnect is growing faster than custom silicon. That is the number to watch on August 28.
Hey there, bargain hunter. Marvell Technology reports fiscal Q2 2027 earnings after the bell on Thursday, August 28. Every recap will lead with Google. The number that actually decides whether this stock is worth owning at 58 times forward earnings is something quieter: optical interconnect growth.
Scoreboard
MRVL is trading near $237 as of August 24, down from $251 on August 21 after an initial pop on the Google news. The 52-week range is $61.44 to $329.88. On August 19, Marvell disclosed an expanded chip agreement with Alphabet’s Google, including a warrant for up to 58.97 million shares at $206.58 — worth $12.2 billion if fully exercised. The warrant vests in tranches: one for every $500 million Google spends on Marvell chips through fiscal 2033. It is not booked revenue. Wall Street consensus for Thursday: $2.71 billion in revenue and $0.93 non-GAAP EPS.
What the Market Is Missing
The Google deal could eventually reach $120 billion in cumulative purchases. That window runs seven years and depends entirely on Google hitting spending thresholds. The more immediate signal is optical interconnect, where management guided above 70% year-over-year growth in fiscal 2027. That outpaces custom silicon. Thursday’s call will tell you whether that trajectory is holding.
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Is It Cheap?
No. MRVL trades at 58 times forward earnings. Broadcom sits at roughly 20 times. Analyst targets range from $126 (UBS) to $350 (Roth Capital, raised August 20). That $224 spread reflects a genuine disagreement about how much certainty belongs on a revenue event seven years out.
Bottom Line
If interconnect growth is confirmed above 70% and Q3 guidance is raised, the premium holds. If either slips, 58 times forward earnings leaves no room for error. Watch the interconnect number Thursday night. The Google headline will take care of itself.
