JPM & UBER: Two Very Different Bargains

May 25, 2026

JPM & UBER: Two Very Different Bargains

One is a fortress. One is a rocket. Neither is simple.


Two names are dominating search traffic this morning: JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Uber Technologies (UBER). That’s not random. Investors are doing exactly what they should be doing ahead of the June cycle – stress-testing the fundamentals before the calendar turns and the macro noise gets louder. Let’s go through both, numbers first.


JPMorgan Chase (JPM): The Fortress With a Footnote

JPM just put up one of the cleaner Q1 prints in recent memory. Net income of $16.5 billion, up 13% year-over-year. EPS of $5.94 – well ahead of the $5.46 consensus. Revenue came in at $50.5 billion, growing 10% from the prior year, driven by investment banking, asset management, and net interest income. Average loans up 11% to $1.5 trillion. Average deposits up 7% to $2.6 trillion. The balance sheet sits at $4.9 trillion in total assets with a CET1 ratio of 14.3%. Return on tangible common equity hit 23%.

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That’s an objectively strong quarter.

Here’s where it gets interesting, though. Management trimmed full-year 2026 NII guidance to approximately $103 billion – down from a prior forecast of $104.5 billion. Expenses are guided near $105 billion for the full year. The stock slipped a few percent on the day despite the beat, which tells you the market was positioned for more. That’s not a red flag – it’s a valuation reality check.

On valuation: JPM trades at roughly 14.5x trailing earnings. The 10-year median P/E sits at 12.23x – meaning the stock is running about 18% above its historical average. It’s not cheap by its own standards. Analyst consensus (33 Wall Street analysts) lands at a median price target of $345, implying meaningful upside from current levels near $302. The bull case rests on net interest income staying durable, investment banking continuing its momentum – the CIB segment was up 19% year-over-year in Q1 – and fee income picking up the slack if rate tailwinds cool further.

The bear case is straightforward: credit costs bear watching. Q1 net charge-offs were $2.3 billion. The card net charge-off rate sits around 3.4%. If the consumer weakens into the back half of 2026, that number moves, and the NII guidance gap looks worse, not better. Basel III Endgame re-proposals add potential capital requirement pressure on top of that.

Worth a look if you want a high-quality bank at a slight premium to history. Not a screaming discount – but not overextended either.


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Uber (UBER): Fast Growth, Complicated Bottom Line

Uber’s Q1 2026 was messy on the surface and strong underneath. Revenue grew 14% year-over-year to $13.2 billion. Gross bookings climbed 25% – to $53.7 billion, ahead of both guidance and the $52.8 billion analyst consensus. Mobility gross bookings hit $26.4 billion (+25% YoY). Delivery hit $26.0 billion (+28% YoY). Monthly active platform consumers reached 199 million, up 17%. Trips totaled 3.6 billion, up 20%.

Adjusted EBITDA grew 33% to $2.5 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.72, up 44% year-over-year. Free cash flow was $2.3 billion. GAAP net income came in at just $263 million due to a $1.5 billion pre-tax headwind from equity investment revaluations – a non-cash accounting item that distorted the headline and briefly confused the market. The stock jumped more than 8% on the day once investors looked past it.

Slight tangent – but it matters. Uber One, the subscription tier, crossed 50 million members and now accounts for roughly half of gross bookings across both Mobility and Delivery. That’s a retention engine most platform businesses would envy. And AI coding adoption inside Uber’s engineering org has hit 95% monthly usage, with AI agents authoring more than one in ten lines of code. Not a revenue line item today, but a real efficiency lever going forward.

Q2 2026 guidance calls for gross bookings of $56.25 billion to $57.75 billion – 18% to 22% constant-currency growth – and non-GAAP EPS of $0.78 to $0.82. That guidance cleared the $56.17 billion consensus and implies momentum is holding.

Now, the valuation picture. UBER trades at a trailing P/E of roughly 18.5x and a forward P/E near 20x. The PEG ratio is 0.64 – which, if you trust the growth forecast, is genuinely reasonable for a platform compounder. EV/EBITDA sits at 22x. The consensus analyst price target is around $107, implying significant upside from current levels. Full-year 2026 revenue is forecast near $58.2 billion, though the FY2026 EPS estimate has been trimmed to approximately $2.95 from a prior $3.37 – that’s the number that requires some explanation, and part of why search interest is elevated.

The risks are real. GAAP profitability remains lumpy due to equity investment volatility and the Freight segment’s continued losses. Regulatory exposure on driver classification is an open variable – particularly in the UK, where a tax law change hit Q1 results by roughly $1 billion. Autonomous vehicle economics remain a long-dated bet. Goldman Sachs trimmed their target to $115 from $125 while keeping a Buy. Piper Sandler moved to $105 from $100, also Overweight.


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Cheap Investor Scorecard

  • JPM Q1 EPS: $5.94 vs. $5.46 estimate – beat
  • JPM Revenue: $50.5B, +10% YoY
  • JPM NII Guidance 2026: ~$103B (trimmed from $104.5B)
  • JPM Trailing P/E: ~14.5x vs. 10-year median of 12.2x
  • JPM Analyst Consensus: Median $345 target, 33 analysts
  • UBER Q1 Gross Bookings: $53.7B, +25% YoY – beat
  • UBER Adjusted EBITDA: $2.5B, +33% YoY
  • UBER Non-GAAP EPS: $0.72, +44% YoY
  • UBER Free Cash Flow: $2.3B in Q1 alone
  • UBER Analyst Consensus: ~$107 average target, Strong Buy rating

Here’s where I land on both. JPM is a quality hold for anyone who already owns it and wants a high-quality financial anchor going into a rate-uncertain second half. Adding at current levels requires accepting that you’re paying a premium to history. If credit holds and fee income keeps growing, that premium is defensible. If consumer credit cracks, it’s not.

Uber is a different calculus. The underlying operating momentum is genuinely impressive – 20%+ gross bookings growth for three consecutive quarters on a constant-currency basis is hard to argue with at this scale. The GAAP noise is real but mostly non-operational. If you believe the platform flywheel and are willing to hold through AV transition noise, the valuation math works. If you need clean GAAP earnings clarity before you buy, you’re probably waiting until 2027.

Both names have more story ahead of them than most investors currently price in. Neither one is finished surprising people.

– The Cheap Investor