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What Bargain Hunters Need to Know Before the Bell on May 4, 2026

Pour the coffee now. Tonight is a busy one. Palantir, ON Semiconductor, and Diamondback Energy all report Q1 2026 after the close today — three very different businesses, three very different stories, and three very different things the market is trying to price in before the opening bell. Meanwhile, two other names that already reported last week are still moving and worth a second look.

Here is what you actually need to know before the noise starts.

The Scoreboard Heading Into Tonight

• Palantir Technologies (PLTR) closed Friday at $144.07, up about 3.6% on the day, and is trading near $142–$144 in premarket this morning. The stock is down roughly 19% year-to-date and sits about 30% off its 52-week high of $207.52. Consensus heading into tonight: $1.54 billion in Q1 2026 revenue, up 74% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS of $0.28, up 115% year-over-year. Options markets are pricing in roughly a 10% move in either direction post-print.
• ON Semiconductor (ON) closed Friday at $103.03 — a fresh 52-week high — after gaining more than 50% in April alone and roughly 146% over the past year. The stock is up premarket near $100–$103 ahead of tonight’s print. Q1 guidance from management: revenue of $1.435 billion to $1.535 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.56 to $0.66. Consensus sits at approximately $1.49 billion in revenue and $0.62 EPS. This one has run hard. The question tonight is whether the results justify the move.
• Diamondback Energy (FANG) is also reporting after the close tonight, with the conference call set for Tuesday morning at 8 a.m. CT. The stock closed Friday near $207.51, up 6.8% over the past month, with an average analyst price target of $222.70. The market is expecting Q1 revenue to decline roughly 5.2% year-over-year as lower oil prices weigh on the comparison. WTI crude is trading near $101 per barrel this morning — not collapsing, but elevated for a different reason than you might think.
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) already reported Q1 2026 on April 28 and surged 26% on the results — its best single-day gain since going public in 2010. Q1 revenue hit $3.18 billion, up 12% year-over-year. EPS of $3.05 beat the $2.98 consensus. Q2 guidance calls for $3.35 billion to $3.55 billion in revenue, implying roughly 18% growth. The stock is now trading near $295. This one is not a setup for tonight — it is a read-through for the broader automotive chip recovery thesis that ON Semiconductor is betting on.
• Twilio (TWLO) reported Q1 2026 on April 30 and closed Friday up roughly 24% on the day at $183.34 — its strongest revenue and gross profit growth in more than three years. Q1 revenue came in at $1.41 billion, up 20% year-over-year, beating the $1.34 billion estimate. Adjusted EPS of $1.50 crushed the $1.27 consensus. Management raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to 14–15% and lifted adjusted operating income guidance to $1.08–$1.1 billion. Bank of America upgraded to Buy and lifted its target to $190 from $110. The stock has now rallied roughly 81% over the past year.

What Actually Matters Tonight

Palantir is the headliner. The stock trades at roughly 221 times trailing earnings and approximately 50 times expected 2026 revenue — one of the most expensive multiples in the large-cap software universe. That valuation only holds if the commercial revenue acceleration continues. Last quarter, Q4 2025, U.S. commercial revenue grew 137% year-over-year to $507 million. Analysts are modeling roughly 94% growth for Q1 2026, which would put U.S. commercial revenue near $772 million. A miss there, or a soft guide on the commercial side, is where the downside lives.

The other number to watch is full-year 2026 guidance. In Q4, management guided for 61% year-over-year revenue growth for 2026, implying a range around $7.18–$7.19 billion for the full year. Any raise to that figure — or even a confident reiteration alongside a strong commercial beat — likely pushes the stock through the $146 resistance level that has capped it for weeks. A miss on either front, and the bears will have plenty of cover to press.

Slight tangent, but it matters here: Palantir just landed a $300 million blanket purchase agreement with the USDA for AI platform modernization. That is not a small contract. It signals that the government segment is not just holding — it is actively expanding into new civilian agencies, not just defense. Worth keeping in mind as you read the government revenue line tonight.

ON Semiconductor is a different kind of test. The stock has already moved. A lot. Up 83% year-to-date before tonight’s print, sitting at a 52-week high, with a forward P/E near 34 times. The setup is high expectations meeting a company that is still in recovery mode — automotive chip demand is stabilizing, not booming. Industrial revenues grew roughly 4% sequentially in Q4 2025. AI data center exposure has emerged as a new growth driver, with that segment growing from near zero in 2024 to more than $250 million in 2025. What the market wants to hear tonight is confirmation that the stabilization is real and that margins are moving back toward the low-to-mid 40% range from the current trough near 38% non-GAAP gross margin. A beat-and-raise on Q2 guidance keeps the momentum alive. A guide that disappoints — or any commentary suggesting auto recovery is getting pushed again — and this stock gives back a meaningful chunk of that April run very quickly.

Diamondback is a macro call dressed up as a company-specific event. WTI near $101 per barrel is not where it was when the year started — and the reason it is elevated is not one most energy investors were modeling. The US-Iran conflict, effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and a surge in American crude exports to fill displaced Middle Eastern supply have pushed oil sharply higher this year. Prices surged nearly 60% since the conflict began in late February. That is a tailwind for Diamondback’s free cash flow, not a headwind. The bear case — soft Chinese demand, OPEC weakness — simply does not describe the world as it exists right now. The actual risk for FANG tonight is whether Q4 2025’s EPS miss (reported at $1.74 versus the $2.41 consensus) was a one-time item or a signal of structural cost pressure. The Q1 setup expects a 5% revenue decline year-over-year against a tough comp, but the current commodity backdrop is more constructive than the estimate cycle reflects.

Where Bargain Hunters Should Focus

Twilio at $183 is the most interesting name to evaluate right now — not because you chase it, but because the story has actually changed. This is no longer an activist pressure play or a cost-cutting narrative. It is a beat-and-raise AI infrastructure story with real numbers behind it. Q1 adjusted EPS of $1.50 versus $1.27 expected. Revenue $1.41 billion versus $1.34 billion. Full-year guidance raised to 14–15% revenue growth. Dollar-based net expansion rate climbed to 114% from 107% a year ago — existing customers are spending more. The forward P/E sits near 27 times, which is not cheap, but it is not crazy for a business reaccelerating to 20% revenue growth.

The honest question is whether you are buying a genuine inflection or a post-earnings momentum spike that fades. The answer probably depends on what the SIGNAL conference on May 6–7 delivers in terms of product roadmap and AI platform announcements. That is the next catalyst. The watchlist becomes a buy list if the June quarter holds the guidance.

ON Semiconductor entering earnings at a 52-week high is not where bargain hunters typically like to build positions. The business is genuinely improving. The silicon carbide partnerships with NIO and Geely for next-generation 900V EV platforms are real design wins. Free cash flow for 2025 came in at $1.4 billion — record levels. A $6 billion share repurchase authorization gives management room to be aggressive on buybacks through the cycle. But the stock at $103 with earnings consensus at $0.62 and a forward P/E near 34 times — that is not a margin-of-safety entry. If the print is strong and Q2 guide is above expectations, the stock likely holds and extends. If the guide disappoints even modestly, the giveback could be sharp given the run.

Palantir at $144 per share. The math on valuation is brutal for a bargain hunter. Roughly 50 times 2026 expected revenue. Price-to-earnings north of 220 times trailing. That is a stock that requires not just continued execution but an accelerating acceleration. The commercial AI platform story is real — boot camps driving faster enterprise sales cycles, AIP adoption broadening across industries, and a $300 million USDA contract showing the government segment is not ceiling-limited. But at this price, you are not buying a bargain. You are paying for perfection and hoping perfection arrives early.

The Cheap Investor Checklist for Tonight

• Palantir (PLTR) — Watch U.S. commercial revenue. If it beats the $772 million consensus by a meaningful margin, the $146 resistance breaks. If it misses, $136 support gets tested quickly. Full-year guidance raise is the secondary catalyst.
• ON Semiconductor (ON) — Non-GAAP gross margin trajectory is the key number. Is it moving from the 38% trough toward 40%+? Q2 revenue guidance relative to the $1.49 billion consensus will set the tone for whether the recovery thesis has legs into H2 2026.
• Diamondback Energy (FANG) — With WTI near $101, the commodity setup is actually better than the analyst models currently reflect. Watch for any update on capital allocation, dividend trajectory, and whether management revises the $3.75 billion 2026 capex budget in light of oil price strength.
• NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) — Already reported and surged 26%. Use this as a read-through: if NXP is seeing broad-based automotive and industrial recovery, that is a positive data point for ON Semiconductor’s setup tonight. The NXP print was the first real confirmation the automotive chip cycle is turning.
• Twilio (TWLO) — The post-earnings level near $183 is where the stock needs to hold and consolidate. Watch the May 6–7 SIGNAL conference for product and platform announcements. That event is the next catalyst that either validates or undermines the raised guidance.

Bottom Line

Three big prints drop after tonight’s close. The most asymmetric setup — in either direction — is ON Semiconductor, where a stock up 83% year-to-date meets its first real fundamental test. Palantir’s result will generate the most noise, but the real signal is in the commercial revenue line and the guidance tone, not the headline beat. Diamondback may actually surprise to the upside relative to lowered expectations, given where crude is trading right now.

Twilio is already through its event. That story is about execution over the next two quarters now, not the earnings release.

Let the dust settle after tonight’s prints before you act. The gap-and-go crowd will be active in the first 30 minutes of Tuesday’s open. Check the actual numbers against the guidance before you place a single order.