September 24, 2026
The Belarus potash deal has no volume, no shipping route, and no timeline. Nutrien near $75 is a different conversation.
Hey there, bargain hunter. A Truth Social post torched billions in fertilizer market value in two days, and the question on every value investor’s desk right now is whether Nutrien and Mosaic just got handed to you at a discount or whether they were already value traps before the president weighed in.
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In 2016, Louis Navellier recommended Nvidia at $2.51 – split-adjusted. It went up 44,000%. He also called Apple before a 36,000% rise and Microsoft before a 60,800% climb. Now he says a new AI device coming online in Tennessee is the setup for the biggest call of his career.
He’s agreed to reveal the stock at the center of it – down to the ticker – for free.
Scoreboard
Nutrien fell about 3% to $74.54, Mosaic fell about 2% to $24.07, and CF Industries dropped roughly 3% after Trump posted on Truth Social Monday that the U.S. is working on a “massive Deal” to buy potash from Belarus at a much cheaper price than Canada, which supplied nearly nine out of every 10 tons of U.S. potash imports in the April 2025 to March 2026 period.
What Actually Happened
The market priced in a new, low-cost supply threat. The reality is murkier. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Monday that the country has little potash available for Western buyers because essentially all of its 2026 production is already committed under existing contracts. Belarusian potash exports have faced restrictions and logistical obstacles stemming from Western sanctions, and the country has redirected much of its trade toward Russia, China, and other Asian markets.
Chris Krueger at TD Cowen noted that Belarusian potash is already largely committed to Asia and the logistics of shipping it to the United States would be “challenging.” StoneX fertilizer analyst Josh Linville said he doubts Belarusian potash will play a major role, adding “I’m afraid the impact would be limited. We have not struggled to find potash.” The real U.S. shortage is in phosphate and nitrogen, not potash.
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Deep Dive: The Business
Nutrien is the world’s largest potash producer and also runs the largest agricultural retail network in North America. Record first-half potash sales volumes and strong proprietary product margins helped push first-half 2026 adjusted EBITDA up 6% year-over-year. That is not a business in distress. Q2 2026 net earnings came in at $1.22 billion, or $2.53 diluted EPS.
Mosaic is a different animal. Weak phosphate margins, negative free cash flow, and high input costs define its current situation. Q2 results revealed adjusted EBITDA of $407 million, a net loss of $273 million, and negative free cash flow of $153 million, with phosphate gross margins turning negative. Severe sulfur shortages forced phosphate production curtailments, with its Bartow facility running at 40% capacity.
Is It Cheap?
Nutrien trades at roughly 8x EV/EBITDA with a forward P/E around 14x to 15x. That looks reasonable for a company delivering $2.4 billion in quarterly EBITDA. Twenty-five analysts rate NTR a “Buy” on average, with a 12-month price target of $76.90. The Monday close near $74.54 puts you below that consensus. The Belarus headline risk is real but operationally thin.
Mosaic is harder to defend. At roughly 8x EV/EBITDA, it lacks a margin of safety, and upgrades require sulfur price normalization, sustained free cash flow, and improved Brazil profitability. Three separate headwinds need to resolve at the same time. That is not a bargain; that is a bet.
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And he didn’t stop there.
Trump ordered the U.S. to begin rebuilding the domestic supply chain behind it – after decades of growing dependence on foreign countries.
There’s just one problem: America currently produces only a fraction of the critical material it consumes. But one tiny U.S. company controls more than 30 million pounds of it. The government has already bought from this company before. And today, its shares trade for around $1.50. Now Trump’s historic energy push could put this overlooked company squarely in the spotlight.
The Deere Problem Nobody Is Talking About
Even if the Belarus deal evaporates, U.S. farmers are being squeezed from every direction. A Joint Economic Committee Democrats report found that farmers spent $1.4 billion more on diesel during the 2025-2026 planting season, a 63% jump year-over-year. That financial pressure filters directly into equipment budgets. Deere has said demand for large agriculture equipment in the U.S. and Canada is expected to decrease compared to 2025 levels as elevated farm input costs, commodity price volatility, and ongoing market uncertainty continue to pressure demand. Deere itself forecasts the North American large ag equipment market will decline another 15% to 20% in 2026. A farmer bleeding $6 diesel does not buy a new combine.
Bull / Base / Bear
- Bull: Belarus deal collapses on logistics. Canadian supply remains stable. Nutrien’s retail network and record potash volumes sustain EBITDA. NTR re-rates toward $80+.
- Base: Talks drag on for quarters with no actual volume moving. Potash prices stay rangebound. Nutrien earns its keep; Mosaic stays pressured by sulfur costs.
- Bear: Sanctions relief accelerates. Belarus routes supply through a third-country port. Potash prices drop 15-20%. Mosaic’s already-negative free cash flow worsens. Deere’s order book extends its slide.
Action Plan
Nutrien at $74-$75 is worth a partial position for patient holders. The Belarus threat is logistically implausible in 2026, the fundamentals are intact, and the sell-off was sentiment-driven. Scale in a second tranche if it retests $70. Mosaic requires a resolution in sulfur costs before it earns a buy. CF Industries, primarily a nitrogen producer, has the least direct exposure here and screens better on free cash flow. Avoid Deere’s large ag segment entirely until farmer income statements stop deteriorating.
Cheap Investor Scorecard
- Belarus deal volume: watch for any confirmed shipment. Zero so far.
- Nutrien potash sales volumes: raised guidance, record H1. Track quarterly.
- Mosaic free cash flow: negative $153M in Q2. Needs to turn positive.
- Mosaic sulfur costs: Q3 settled around $705 per long ton after $522 per long ton realized in Q2. A meaningful drop is the unlock.
- Potash spot price: if spot breaks materially lower, it changes the model for both NTR and MOS.
- Deere large ag order book: down another 15-20% in 2026 per company guidance. Monitor quarterly filings.
- Diesel at the farm gate: $1.4B extra spending this planting season. Any relief here improves equipment demand timing.
- Canadian tariff status: potash was exempted from the 50% summer tariff. Any change would be the real supply shock.
Bottom Line
If the Belarus deal stays what it currently is, which is a social media post with no committed volume and no shipping route, Nutrien near $75 is a mispriced opportunity for the patient bargain hunter. If it advances beyond negotiation to actual supply, Mosaic’s already-fragile cash flow position makes it the more dangerous hold. Deere’s order book is a separate slow-motion problem that cheaper potash does nothing to fix.
