June 17, 2026
The Growth-At-A-Discount Framework
Capitalizing on Earnings Upgrades Hidden in Plain Sight
Hey there, bargain hunter.
Most investors hunt for cheap stocks. Fewer hunt for cheap stocks with accelerating earnings. The overlap between those two groups is where the real money tends to get made.
That is the core idea behind what we call the Growth-At-A-Discount framework. It is not complicated. You are looking for businesses where Wall Street consensus earnings estimates are moving higher, quickly, while the stock itself is still priced as if the business is going nowhere. The market has not caught up yet. You want to be in before it does.
Right now, two names are checking every box on that screen: DaVita Inc. (DVA) and Pitney Bowes Inc. (PBI). Different industries, different business models, same signal.
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DaVita (DVA): Kidney Care at a Discount to Its Own Growth
DaVita is the largest independent provider of kidney dialysis services in the United States. It is not a speculative growth story. It is a business that treats patients with end-stage renal disease, collects reimbursements from Medicare, Medicaid, and commercial insurers, and has been doing so consistently for over 25 years. Roughly 200 million Americans have chronic kidney disease in some stage. Dialysis demand does not go away in a recession.
Here is where it gets interesting.
Zacks upgraded DVA to a Rank #1 Strong Buy in May 2026 after the consensus estimate for current-year earnings rose 6.4% over the prior 60 days. That kind of revision velocity in a healthcare utility is unusual. It means analysts are not just holding their models flat. They are actively moving their numbers higher. Management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $14.10 to $15.20, up from the prior outlook of $13.60 to $15.00. That is not noise. That is a business performing ahead of its own projections.
Q1 2026 adjusted EPS came in at $2.87, up 43.5% year over year, beating the Zacks consensus by 19.1%. Revenue of $3.42 billion grew 5.9% from the year-ago period. Operating cash flow for full-year 2025 was $1.887 billion. Free cash flow was $1.024 billion. These are not soft numbers.
The valuation is the part that requires a second look. DVA’s forward 12-month P/E sits around 11.9X. The healthcare industry average is roughly 17.4X. The PEG ratio is 0.65. The industry average PEG is 2.18. You are buying growth that the market is currently pricing at roughly a third of what it charges for comparable businesses. DVA holds a Zacks Value Score of A and a VGM Score of A.
Slight tangent, but it matters: DaVita has been aggressively buying back its own shares. The share count is down over 10% in the past year. That is a direct tailwind to per-share earnings growth that does not require the business itself to accelerate. Shrinking the float at these multiples is straightforward capital allocation.
The risk here is reimbursement rate policy. CMS rate decisions are the single largest variable in DaVita’s earnings model. Any policy shift that compresses rates would flow directly through to margins. That is the scenario to track. It is also, historically, the scenario that creates the best entry points for long-term holders of this name.
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Pitney Bowes (PBI): An Infrastructure Business Nobody Talks About
Pitney Bowes does not generate headlines. That is probably why it is cheap.
The company operates in shipping infrastructure, mailing technology, and financial services related to postage and logistics. It is a business-to-business model, sticky contracts, not consumer-facing, not exciting. Exactly the kind of company that institutional money tends to ignore until the earnings revisions get loud enough to force attention.
The revisions are getting louder. PBI currently carries a Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy with a Value Score of A and a VGM Score of A. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 8.78X versus the Office Automation and Equipment industry average of 10.06X. The PEG ratio is 0.59. To put that in context, the industry’s average PEG is 0.73. PBI is cheap even relative to its already discounted peer group.
The earnings revision picture is clean. Over the past 60 days, one analyst revised their fiscal 2025 estimate higher, pushing the Zacks consensus to $1.25 per share. The average earnings surprise over recent quarters sits at 82.4%. When a company is consistently and substantially beating estimates, the consensus is still catching up to reality. That gap is where excess return tends to live.
PBI’s Price/Cash Flow ratio is 6.9X and Price/Sales is 0.9X. You are paying below one times revenue for a profitable, cash-generating infrastructure business. That is a number that tends to get people’s attention once they actually look at it.
The risk profile is real. Revenue trends at PBI have faced headwinds, with one recent quarter showing a year-over-year decline. The mailing side of the business is structurally in decline as physical mail volume continues to fall across the industry. The bull case for PBI requires the company’s pivot toward shipping technology and financial services to generate enough growth to offset that pressure. The margin expansion and earnings beat history suggest that pivot is working. But it is not a foregone conclusion.
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The Cheap Investor Scorecard
- DVA PEG ratio: 0.65 vs. healthcare industry average of 2.18
- DVA forward P/E: ~11.9X vs. industry average of ~17.4X
- DVA 2026 adjusted EPS guidance range: $14.10 to $15.20
- DVA Q1 2026 adjusted EPS beat: 19.1% above consensus
- DVA full-year 2025 free cash flow: $1.024 billion
- DVA Zacks Rank: #1 Strong Buy (upgraded May 2026, +6.4% estimate revision in 60 days)
- PBI PEG ratio: 0.59 vs. industry average of 0.73
- PBI forward P/E: 8.78X vs. industry average of 10.06X
- PBI average earnings surprise: 82.4%
- PBI Price/Sales: 0.9X
The bottom line is straightforward. If the earnings revisions on DVA and PBI continue moving higher, the current multiples look increasingly difficult to justify. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, TD Cowen, Truist, and Barclays have recently revisited their DVA price targets, and the language suggests the consensus is still in the process of catching up to the business. On PBI, the 82.4% average earnings surprise is the kind of data point that eventually forces a broader look.
Neither of these is a high-octane momentum play. What they are is the thing most investors say they want and rarely actually buy: businesses with rising earnings, trading at compressed multiples, with the data moving in the right direction.
Whether the market agrees on the timeline is a different question entirely.
– The Cheap Investor Editorial Team
