Hey there, bargain hunter. A stock that grows revenue 48% year over year and loses half its value in twelve months is sending you two signals at once. Your job this week is to decide which one to believe.
Scoreboard
Sea Limited sits in a 52-week range of $71.53 to $159.80. As of Thursday’s close it was trading around $75.73, down more than 40% year to date. Q3 2026 results drop Tuesday before the open, with consensus now sitting near $0.94 EPS on about $8.08 billion in revenue. In the same quarter a year ago, Sea posted $0.59 per share on $5.99 billion in revenue. The year-over-year EPS growth implied by those numbers is about 59%. And the stock is at a 52-week low.
What Actually Happened
Sea has not beaten the consensus EPS estimate in its last two reported quarters. That is the number doing the work here. Last quarter, Sea missed the analysts’ consensus of $0.86 by $0.16, reporting $0.70. The quarter before that, Sea missed as well. Revenue, meanwhile, is a different story entirely. The business had Q2 revenue of $7.8 billion. Growing fast and missing earnings consistently is not a contradiction. It is a reinvestment decision. The market has stopped giving Sea credit for one and started penalizing it for the other.
The Business
Sea runs three engines under one Singapore roof. Shopee revenue climbed 48.9% to $4.9 billion in Q2, the Monee loan book expanded 62% year over year to $11.1 billion, and Garena bookings rose 15.5% to $763.5 million. Shopee is the dominant e-commerce platform across Southeast Asia and Taiwan. Monee is the fintech arm, now one of the fastest-growing lending books in the region. Garena is the gaming unit that keeps throwing off cash. Shopee is still the dominant growth engine, but Garena’s rebound adds a stronger digital-margin component, while Monee gives Sea a fast-growing fintech layer that can deepen customer monetization across the ecosystem.
Key Numbers
- Total revenue: $7.8 billion, up 48.1% year over year.
- Core marketplace revenue (transaction fees and advertising) rose 65.6% to $4.3 billion, faster than GMV.
- Monee revenue: $1.4 billion, up 58.9% year over year.
- Gross profit: $3.55 billion, up 47.3%.
- GAAP net income: $458 million.
The gap that matters most: revenue EBITDA growth of 10.6% against revenue growth of 48%. Management is targeting $1 billion in full-year adjusted EBITDA. That target is what Tuesday’s print has to defend.
Is It Cheap?
At the current price, SE carries a 12-month analyst price target of $148.25. That is a 95% implied upside from where the stock sits today. The cheap framing holds. The question is whether cheap gets cheaper if Tuesday’s EPS misses again.
Bull / Base / Bear
Bull: The largest e-commerce platform in Southeast Asia is growing at nearly 50% while turning profitable, with a games business paying part of the bill and a fintech arm compounding faster than either. A beat on Tuesday and any upward revision to EBITDA guidance could close a portion of the gap to the $148 average target fast.
Base: Sea continues to grow revenue at 40%+ but misses EPS again on reinvestment spend. The stock grinds near the low end of its range through year-end. Patient holders get paid in 2027 when earnings growth catches the revenue line.
Bear: Risks include gaming revenue softness, potential loan losses in a recession, and valuation risk versus peers. A third straight EPS miss combined with any guidance cut would likely retest the $71.53 52-week low with conviction.
Action Plan
Do not buy the whole position before Tuesday’s open. The EPS miss streak matters. A starter position of 25-33% of your target size now captures any earnings-driven upside without full exposure to another miss. Add the rest if Tuesday delivers on EBITDA trajectory. Hard stop below $70.
Cheap Investor Checklist
- EPS vs. roughly $0.94 consensus: beat or miss, and by how much?
- Shopee adjusted EBITDA: is the $1 billion full-year adjusted EBITDA target still on track?
- Monee loan book quality: 90-day NPL ratio trend (last disclosed: 1.0% in Q2).
- Shopee GMV growth: does it sustain above 25% year over year?
- Core marketplace revenue growth: is the 65.6% rate from Q2 holding?
- Any update to Shopee’s 2-3% medium-term margin target.
- Garena bookings: continued rebound or one-quarter noise?
- Free cash flow conversion versus net income.
- Management commentary on Brazil expansion spend.
- Analyst target revisions in the 48 hours after the results.
Bottom Line
If Sea Limited beats EPS on Tuesday and affirms the $1 billion adjusted EBITDA target, the gap between $75 and $148 becomes very hard to justify. If it misses for a third straight quarter, the market has earned the right to keep discounting the revenue line. Watch the EBITDA number, not just the top line. The revenue already works. The question is whether the profit follows.
