May 25, 2026
The Checklist is Complete
Featured: HPQ’s Wednesday test
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Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research
HPQ’s Wednesday test
HP Inc. (HPQ) reports Wednesday, May 27th, 2026 after the close, with the call at 5:30 p.m. ET. Everybody is waiting for the same thing: a commercial PC recovery that doesn’t disappear the moment promotions stop.
Here’s the thing. HP already set the expectation range back in fiscal Q1, so the headline EPS number is only half the game. The rest is tone, mix, and whether demand looks steady when you zoom in.
Quick anchor from the latest quarter HP reported (fiscal Q1): revenue was $14.4B (up 6.9% y/y), GAAP EPS $0.58, non-GAAP EPS $0.81. Personal Systems was the driver at about $10.3B (+11% y/y). Printing was about $4.2B (–2% y/y) but still posted a chunky 18.3% operating margin. For fiscal Q2, HP guided GAAP EPS $0.52–$0.58 and non-GAAP $0.70–$0.76.
What I’m watching Wednesday is less “did they beat” and more “how did they get there.” If unit demand is improving in commercial, you should hear it in boring language: normal channel inventory, consistent ordering, fewer one-off deals to move boxes. If the growth is mostly price and promotions… that’s not a refresh cycle. That’s effort.
Slight tangent, but it matters: PC cycles often look healthiest right before they roll over, because everyone’s excited about “the turn” and nobody asks how much of it is pull-forward. I want the unsexy version – gradual, repeatable, not dramatic.
Printing is the quiet stabilizer. If supplies stay resilient and margins don’t crack, HP can afford to be patient in PCs. If Printing weakens at the same time PCs need discounting, the earnings quality question gets louder.
So yeah, Wednesday night isn’t just “PCs up or down.” It’s whether HP can show improving commercial demand without paying for it. Worth a look – especially the segment margins and any change (or lack of change) in the full-year ranges.
