May 15, 2026

Distracted Americans set to miss out on quadrillions

FEATURED: Coleman bought INTC and HOOD, sold WDAY and Circle. Are the deals still there?

The Scoreboard

New position — INTC: 1.6 million shares, valued at $72.3 million as of March 31
New position — HOOD: 400,000 shares, valued at $10.6 million as of March 31
Full exit — WDAY: Complete liquidation after trimming 46.8% of shares in Q2 2025 alone
Full exit — CRCL: Circle Internet Group dumped within two quarters of initial entry
Trim — MSFT: Microsoft stake reduced as part of broader software rotation
Adds — AVGO, NVDA, TSM, AMAT: Semiconductor concentration deepens across the board

Intel — Cheap Chip or Crowded Trade?

Tiger was buying INTC sometime between January and March 31 — before the Q1 earnings print that turned heads. On April 23, Intel reported Q1 2026 revenue of $13.58 billion, beating the $12.42 billion consensus by 9.4%. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 demolished the $0.01 estimate. Shares popped more than 20% in after-hours. Data Center and AI revenue grew 22% year-over-year to $5.1 billion. AI-driven businesses — now 60% of total revenue — grew 40% year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margin of 41% came in roughly 650 basis points above guidance.

Here’s the thing, though. Tiger’s entry price looks sharp in retrospect. The stock has moved materially since March 31. At current levels, the GAAP picture is still ugly — Q1 carried a net loss of $3.73 billion, an operating loss of $3.14 billion, and free cash flow of negative $3.87 billion. Q2 guidance calls for $13.8–$14.8 billion in revenue but a step-down in non-GAAP gross margin to approximately 39%. The 18A node ramp is real. The income statement is still catching up. Coleman is betting the gap closes — but bargain hunters buying today are paying for a lot of good news that’s already in the price.

Worth noting: more than 2,000 institutional investors initiated new Intel positions in Q1 2026, per a Reuters review of over 6,000 13F filings. Crowded turnarounds are still turnarounds — but the margin for error shrinks when everyone arrives at the same thesis in the same quarter.

Robinhood — Messy Quarter, Clean Fundamentals

Tiger’s HOOD stake is smaller — $10.6 million — but the setup is interesting. Q1 2026 revenue of $1.07 billion missed the $1.14 billion consensus. EPS of $0.38 trailed estimates, snapping four straight quarters of beats. The headline miss was almost entirely crypto: segment revenue collapsed 47% year-over-year to $134 million as the post-election digital asset frenzy cooled fast.

Peel back the crypto noise and the underlying platform looks solid. Total net revenues grew 15% year-over-year. Funded customers expanded 6% to a record 27.4 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $534 million. Net income grew 3% to $346 million. Transaction-based revenues grew 7% to $623 million — carried by a 320% surge in event contracts and 46% growth in equities. Trailing-twelve-month Rule of 40 score: 98%, combining 42% revenue growth with a 56% adjusted EBITDA margin. That’s not a struggling fintech. That’s a platform finding its stride. CFO Shiv Verma confirmed Q2 net deposits tracking approximately $5 billion in April alone despite tax season headwinds.

The Exits — What Coleman Walked Away From

What you sell tells you as much as what you buy.

Workday had been a slow bleed exit — Tiger trimmed 46.8% of shares in Q2 2025 alone before pulling the plug entirely in Q1 2026. Enterprise HR software at premium multiples is a hard argument when AI-native platforms are encroaching on every incumbent’s moat. The Circle Internet Group exit is sharper — Tiger entered the stablecoin issuer in Q2 2025 and was fully out within two quarters. That kind of speed signals a thesis change, not a trim. Whether it was regulatory uncertainty, valuation, or a competitive read on the stablecoin landscape, Coleman didn’t stick around to find out. The Microsoft trim fits the same pattern: rotating from established software names toward infrastructure and platform plays with cleaner AI leverage.

The Cheap Investor Scorecard

INTC — AI revenue traction: 60% of total revenue, growing 40% YoY. Watch for sustained growth in Q2 2026 report (July 23)
INTC — Gross margin recovery: Q1 non-GAAP GM of 41% was strong; Q2 guide steps down to ~39%. Direction matters more than the number
INTC — Free cash flow: Still deeply negative at -$3.87B in Q1. No FCF recovery, no durable valuation re-rate
INTC — 18A node ramp: The pivotal execution variable. Customer announcements and yield data are the tells
HOOD — Crypto dependency: One segment drove the Q1 miss. Watch crypto revenue stabilization in Q2
HOOD — Funded account growth: 27.4 million funded accounts, record high. Retention at scale is the long game
HOOD — Adjusted EBITDA margin: 56% on a trailing basis. If this holds through a down-crypto quarter, the business model is proven
HOOD — Net deposits: $5B in April alone. Organic inflows without a crypto catalyst are the durable signal

Bottom Line

If Intel executes on the 18A ramp and gross margins recover toward 45%+ by late 2026, Coleman’s Q1 entry looks like the kind of early positioning that defines a fund’s vintage year. If margin guidance continues to step down and foundry customers stall, the thesis gets crowded and expensive fast.

Robinhood is the quieter bet — one noisy crypto quarter masking a platform that’s compounding at an elite rate. If Q2 deposits hold and crypto revenue stabilizes even modestly, the re-rate case builds itself.

Remember: this is a March 31 snapshot. Tiger may have already trimmed, added, or exited. The 13F tells you where a great fund was — not where it’s going. Do your own homework, bargain hunter. The edge is in the preparation.