BERLIN (Reuters) -German unemployment fell unexpectedly in July, showing resilience in the labour market despite difficult economic conditions, but the first cracks are appearing.
The Federal Labour Office said on Tuesday that the number of people out of work decreased by 4,000 in seasonally adjusted terms to 2.604 million. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected that figure to rise by 20,000.
The marginal decline in jobless claims was the first decline since January, halting a cumulative 97,000 increase in claims between February and June, Pantheon Macroeconomics’ chief eurozone economist Claus Vistesen said.
The seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 5.6%.
“The strong labour market has been an important driver of the economy’s resilience over the last few years,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.
Without the inclusion of Ukrainian nationals, however, there would have been an increase of 8,000 in the number of jobless due to the weak economic environment, labour office head Andrea Nahles said on Tuesday.
“Companies’ demand for labour remains restrained,” she said.
Not seasonally adjusted, unemployment rose by 62,000, raising the number of unemployed to 2.617 million. The number of unemployed people is 147,000 higher than in July 2022.
In July, there were 772,000 job openings, 108,000 fewer than a year ago. Although the Federal Labour Office has seen a slowdown in labour demand in the last year, it remains at a high level.
The “almost invincible” German labour market is showing some cracks, Brzeski said. However, he notes that for the current wage negotiations, these first signs of cooling will be too small to have a significant impact.
“The longer economic growth remains sluggish and uncertainty persists, the higher the likelihood that unions and employees will increasingly opt again for job security rather than high wage growth,” Brzeski said.
(Reporting by Friederike Heine and Maria Martinez, Editing by Riham Alkousaa and Ed Osmond)
