LONDON (Reuters) – Inflation is easing but major central banks remain hawkish, with a long-awaited pause from the U.S. Federal Reserve this week coming with a warning by the world’s most influential interest rate setter that the tightening cycle may not be over yet.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank on Thursday hiked rates by 25 basis points (bps).
Canada, which had paused its rate hike cycle, raised again in June. The Bank of England, still battling inflation, is widely expected to implement its 14th consecutive hike this month.
To date, nine developed economies have raised rates by a combined 3,615 bps in this cycle. Japan is the holdout dove.
Here’s a look at where policymakers stand, from most hawkish to dovish.
1) NEW ZEALAND
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.5% in May. It also surprised markets by forecasting rates would not move above this level, in a strong signal its tightening cycle was ending after rate hikes so far began to have the desired effect on inflation.
Still, the RBNZ has hiked rates the most among major economies in this tightening cycle.
2) UNITED STATES
The Fed paused its most aggressive series of rate hikes since the 1980s on June 14, keeping its main funds rate at 5% to 5.25%, but strongly resisted confirming that monetary tightening will end.
Instead, the pause allows policymakers time to gather information before determining whether rates need to rise again, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said.
Fed officials also projected two more 25-bp hikes this year. The U.S. economy has held up better than the Fed expected while inflation has declined more slowly than forecast.
3) CANADA
The Bank of Canada hiked its overnight interest rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% on June 7, having kept borrowing costs steady since January to assess the impact of tightening so far.
The decision followed surprisingly strong consumer spending, a pick-up in housing activity and the labour market staying tight.
4) BRITAIN
The Bank of England is seen as likely to press on with rate hikes. UK inflation, which hit 8.7% in April, is the joint highest in the G7 group of advanced economies. And the UK economy continues to evade recession.
All 64 economists polled by Reuters see the BoE raising rates to 4.75% on June 22, in what would be its 13th consecutive hike.
5) AUSTRALIA
Australia’s central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on June 6 to an 11-year high of 4.1%.
The RBA said inflation was still too high and warned that further tightening might be warranted to ensure price increases return to target levels. Markets price in around a one-in-three shot of another hike in July.
6) EURO ZONE
The ECB on Thursday raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.5%, the highest level in 22 years.
It expects inflation to stay above its 2% target through 2025 and hinted at more rate hikes ahead.
ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that “economic growth is likely to remain weak in the short run but strengthen during the course of the year as inflation comes down.”
7) SWEDEN
Riksbank officials look set to hike rates again by 25 bps to 3.75% at their June 28 meeting.
Swedish inflation has cooled to 6.7%, below the Riksbank’s expectations, but still uncomfortably above its 2% target.
The central bank is in a tricky spot, with Sweden’s property market suffering from higher rates.
8) NORWAY
The Norges Bank meets on June 22 after core inflation jumped unexpectedly to a record 6.7% in May. Analysts expect a 50-bp hike, following 25-bp rate rises at its last two meetings.
The worst performer among G10 currencies, the Norwegian crown has been weaker than the bank forecast, down 7% against the dollar this year and feeding inflationary pressures.
9) SWITZERLAND
The Swiss National Bank is expected to hike interest rates when it meets on June 22. The question is by how much.
Market pricing implies a 54% chance of a 50-bp increase, and a 46% chance of a 25-bp rise from the current 1.5% level.
Swiss inflation slowed in May to 2.2% but the SNB wants it below 2%, Chairman Thomas Jordan has said.
10) JAPAN
The Bank of Japan remains the world’s most dovish major central bank under new Governor Kazuo Ueda.
It is expected to keep policy ultra-loose at its upcoming meeting which finishes Friday. While the BOJ may signal that inflation is overshooting its forecasts it is very unlikely this would trigger a sudden rate hike.
At Ueda’s first meeting in late April, the BOJ maintained its ultra low rates and its yield curve control policy that caps longer term government bond yields.
(Reporting by Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson and Chiara Elisei; Graphics by Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen and Pasit Kongkunakornkul and Riddhima Talwani; Compiled by Naomi Rovnick; Editing by Dhara Ransinghe and Jonathan Oatis)
