Hey there, bargain hunter—tomorrow morning (April 14, 2026, before the bell), Johnson & Johnson reports. This is one of those “steady ship” earnings where the headline EPS matters less than the mix: can high-growth Oncology + MedTech keep offsetting the Immunology air pocket from Stelara biosimilars?

Scoreboard: what’s expected

• Consensus revenue: about $23.5–$23.6B (street estimates vary slightly) with roughly ~8% YoY growth implied.
• Consensus EPS: about $2.68–$2.69 (again, minor estimate dispersion).
• Big-picture baseline: FY2025 sales were $94.2B; FY2026 guidance midpoint is $100.5B revenue and $11.53 adjusted EPS.

Expectations vs. Reality

The market isn’t asking, “Did J&J grow?” It did in 2025. The market is asking: how clean is the growth quality once you strip out (1) the Stelara decline and (2) M&A boosts in both segments.

In J&J’s FY2025 disclosures, management quantified the Stelara drag as a material hit to operational sales: approximately ~6.2% negative impact on worldwide operational sales, and ~10.4% negative impact inside Innovative Medicine specifically. That’s the crater the rest of the portfolio must fill—every quarter.

Where the money is (and what to watch tomorrow)

Innovative Medicine (Pharma): In 2025 it delivered $60.4B (+6.0%). The internal handoff is clear: Oncology was $25.38B (+22.1%) led by Darzalex $14.35B (+23%) and Carvykti $1.89B (+95.9%). If those engines keep humming in Q1, they’re the “proof” the Stelara era is being replaced, not merely patched.

MedTech: In 2025 it did $33.8B (+6.1%). The standout was Cardiovascular $8.93B (+15.8%), with Shockwave $1.15B (up sharply vs. $564M in 2024). Tomorrow, watch whether that cardiovascular strength persists and whether Orthopaedics (only +1.1% in 2025) stops being the speed bump.

Is it cheap?

J&J rarely looks “cheap” on a screen—what you’re really buying is durability + mix improvement. The cleanest valuation litmus test this quarter: does management reiterate FY2026 guidance (the $100.5B sales / $11.53 adj. EPS midpoint) while showing Oncology and Cardiovascular are still compounding fast enough to outrun Immunology erosion?

Action plan for tomorrow morning

• If revenue is on track and guidance holds, but EPS is noisy: treat it as a mix story, not a “miss” story.
• If Oncology growth decelerates meaningfully and Immunology weakens: that’s when the “Stelara hole” starts winning—expect multiple pressure.
• If MedTech Cardiovascular stays hot: the market will pay up for the idea that J&J is becoming less of a one-drug narrative.

Cheap Investor checklist (track these on the print)

• Reaffirmed or changed FY2026 guidance: $100.5B sales, $11.53 adj. EPS midpoint
• Innovative Medicine trajectory vs FY2025 base of $60.4B
• Oncology growth (Darzalex, Carvykti) vs FY2025 levels
• Immunology commentary on post-Stelara stabilization
• MedTech Cardiovascular momentum vs FY2025 +15.8%
• Shockwave integration and growth contribution

Bottom line: If J&J can print around the $23.5–$23.6B revenue expectation and keep 2026 guidance intact while showing Oncology + Cardiovascular are still carrying real weight, the quarter supports the “high-quality compounder” thesis—even if Immunology remains messy.