By Jihoon Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s exports likely fell in April for a seventh consecutive month and their longest falling streak in more than three years, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday, highlighting frail overseas demand as the world economy slows.
Outbound shipments were expected to have fallen 13.5% in April from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 10 economists in the survey, almost unchanged from the 13.6% drop in March.
Such a contraction would extend a year-on-year run of losses to a seventh month and mark the longest falling streak since January 2020.
“Exports’ recovery is being delayed due to persistent weakness in China-bound shipments and semiconductor exports,” said economist Park Sang-hyun at HI Investment Securities.
“Although there has not yet been any sign of a rebounding momentum, the recovery is likely to begin modestly near the end of this quarter or from the next quarter.”
In the first 20 days of this month, South Korea exported goods worth 11.0% less than a year earlier. Exports to China dropped 26.8% and semiconductor shipments tumbled 39.3%, each set for an 11th and 10th straight loss.
The country’s imports likely fell 10.6% in April year-on-year, according to the survey, accelerating from a 6.4% decline in March and suffering their sharpest drop since August 2020.
Overall, South Korea is expected to post a 14th consecutive monthly trade deficit. The median expectation of economists in the survey was a deficit of $2.89 billion, which would mark the smallest since June.
Full monthly trade data is scheduled for release on Monday, May 1, at 9 a.m. (0000 GMT).
On factory output, economists estimated seasonally adjusted production to have risen by 0.5% in March from February, when it recorded a 3.2% loss. The data will be released on April 28.
The survey also found a median 3.8% year-on-year rise in the country’s consumer price index for April, which is due on May 2, marking the slowest annual gain in 14 months.
(Reporting by Jihoon Lee in Seoul, Polling by Anant Chandak and Madhumita Gokhale in Bengaluru; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
