In investing, the conventional wisdom is usually far more of the more and quite the opposite of the latter.
Nothing more so than the cliched advice to “buy the dip.”
There are countless historical studies which show buying dips leads to dreadful performance.
I get it.
If you liked it at $40, you’ve got to love it at $35...and all that.
However, if you pick up a copy of historical market returns like O'Shaughnessy’s What Works On Wall Street, you’ll quickly see the most consistent way to lag the markets is to buy into stocks that “dip.”
Today though -- for reasons you’re about to see -- I’m going to make an exception in one special case for an especially urgent opportunity.
Never Buy The Dip, Except...
There’s a lot of dots to connect here, but what I think you’ll see is “dip” is more of a “blip” than anything else.
Let me take you back to last Friday.
After a couple weeks of eerily consistent declines for the major stock indices, everything turned at 8:31 Eastern Time that morning.
That’s when the monthly jobs report was released.
This one seemingly changed everything.
The 255,000 increase in jobs blew away forecasts.
Stocks raced to new highs. Two weeks of declines were erased by gains in two days.
Gold, on the other hand, tanked. It fell $25 within hours. It’s worst day in probably months.
The reasons behind these moves is why this dip is one of the few good ones to buy though.
The fundamental principle driving gold prices higher is low interest rates.
We won’t get into all the details about negative real interest rates and the direct correlation to the price of gold today.
For today's purposes, we’ll stick with the simplified -- low rates are good for gold, high rates are bad for gold.
Now, if the Federal Reserve is going to hike rates, it would be bad for gold.
The Fed has been holding back rate hikes citing lack of a turnaround in unemployment.
So when the jobs report came in at +255,000, the market reacted like the Fed would hike rates after their September meeting.
Well, at least that the probability of a rate hike was so much higher.
The reaction to the news sent gold prices down and gold stocks down even more.
That was just the quick reaction though.
If you look at the Fed Funds Futures Rates (basically, the marketplace where you can bet on and hedge against the Fed’s interest rate moves), you’ll see a much different picture.
The probability of a rate increase before the jobs report came out was 18%.
Today, the probability of a Fed rate increase is 18%.
Nothing has changed.
It was one jobs report.
It was good, yes. But it was one.
The trend is still against real unemployment changing significantly anytime soon, which means the Fed won’t hike interest rates, and the gold bull market will continue.
Altogether, this creates a unique situation.
Gold got cheaper and gold stocks got significantly cheaper.
Meanwhile, the real fundamentals behind gold and gold stock prices stayed the same.
That’s why this is one of the few dips I’m willing to buy.