The biggest investment story of 2016 is just starting to come into focus.
Few analysts have really realized the full impact of it yet. Most never will.
One person, however, is all over it.
That’s Donald Trump.
Regardless what of you think of him, he’s seeing this opportunity with the clear, detached vision of a billionaire.
And investors who start acting today could be looking at a highly-lucrative 15 months run for a handful of stocks.
Here’s what I mean.
And The Winners Are...
Trump has been one of the few people to bring attention to the final stages of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations.
The TPP a proposed treaty between up to 20 Pacific Rim nations. It includes the United States, Japan, Indonesia, Australia, and Canada. Altogether they account for 40% of world GDP. There’s literally trillions of dollars on the line here.
It’s also a secret deal with only a few details released so far.
The real estate mogul asked the simple question so many have wondered, “If this was such a good deal, why was there not more transparency?“
He’s got a point there.
He’s got another point from understanding how Washington works as to who will be the big winners.
The reality TV star also surmised, “The only entities to benefit from this trade deal will be other countries, particularly China and Japan, and big corporations in America.”
Well, he’s right there too.
Well, look at the few details we have learned about the TPP and you’ll quickly see there are going to be some big winners in all this. Odds are the only you will be one of the winners is if you invest accordingly.
For example, New Zealand has been on of one of the hold-outs on the TPP.
According to reports, the country of 4.4 million has refused to sign on until it gets a commitment that foreign markets would be opened up to it’s dairy industry.
Dairy is big in New Zealand. The dominant leader is Fonterra. It’s New Zealand’s largest dairy company and the country’s third largest company.
You better believe it has some political sway.
Fonterra will likely will boom if the extensive tariffs used by many other countries to protect their own agriculture markets are slashed.
The same goes for the United States too.
Big money special interests are getting most of the benefits we’ve heard about so far.
The largest political spending industries - agriculture, technology, finance, and healthcare - are all likely going to get the biggest rewards out of the whole deal.
One clear sector headed for the TPP Winner’s Circle is poultry.
The U.S. almost produces more chickens annually than all of the other TPP participant countries put together.
Lifting of tariffs which reach as high as 40% in some countries will open up a lot of markets for “Big Chicken” and will surely be benefitting Pilgrim’s Pride and Tyson Foods.
Not all will be winners though.
One reported “loser” in all this has been the U.S. pharmaceutical sector.
U.S. negotiators were pushing for 12-year patent protection on new drugs before low-cost generics would be allowed to compete.
Most of those countries currently have protections ranging from five to eight years though.
The way the deal is looking, those countries will not have to increase the length of patent protection times. However, as consolation, they will agree to not shorten these time periods either.
So is the biotech and pharmaceutical really getting “hurt” by that? We doubt it. They probably just won’t gain as much.
Those are just the details we have learned about so far. With six years of negotiations concluding soon, there’s likely to be far more coming out in the months ahead.
Elections Have Consequences (And Profits)
In the end, this is a pretty huge deal.
It will get some attention. But your editor is afraid most of that will be paid by the political media.
It’s only a matter of time until the real reasons it all has been kept so secret for so long. My money’s on a tech industry-friendly immigration component to it all. Time will tell though.
However, when the time does come to see it all, it will be imperative to invest accordingly.
It’s no secret the best sectors since the passage of Obamacare in 2010 have been in the healthcare sector.
Shares in hospitals, health insurers, and diagnostics plays have mostly trounced the S&P 500 since then.
Even biotech and pharmaceuticals -- which you may recall supposedly “took it on the chin” when they contributed “$80 billion in savings” as part of that deal (ordeal?) -- was the best bet anywhere as biotech stocks made an epic run.
If the TPP is just half as big as Obamacare was (it’s probably much bigger), there will be massive and sweeping changes affecting many industries. When there are big changes, there are big winners. As investors, we’ve got to set our politics aside and find those winners.